ICTS researchers have provided new insights into the fundamental limits of predictability in geophysical flows. Samriddhi Sankar Ray and graduate student Mrinal Jyoti Powdel’s findings provide a foundation for future studies of predictability in atmospheric, oceanic, and climate systems.
How predictable are turbulent flows in the oceans and atmosphere? In this study, researchers used high-resolution computer simulations to investigate how tiny disturbances evolve in stably stratified turbulence, where lighter fluid lies above denser fluid. They found that stronger stratification suppresses chaotic behaviour, making the flow more predictable over short times. However, uncertainty still grows in a universal way, spreading much more slowly in the vertical direction than horizontally.
This study, selected as an Editors’ Suggestion in Physical Review Fluids, establishes a general framework for understanding how uncertainty propagates through turbulent geophysical flows. These insights will help improve models of atmospheric and oceanic systems, with potential applications in weather forecasting and climate science.