covid-19

DATA ANALYSIS BASED COMMENTARY


Arghya Das, Abhishek Dhar, Srashti Goyal, Jitendra Kethepalli

International centre for theoretical sciences,
Tata Institute of Fundamental Research,
Bangalore 560089, INDIA

Kanaya Malakar

Department of physics, Brandeis University,
Massachusetts, 02453  USA

Sriram Shastry

Physics Department, UCSC, Santa Cruz
California, 95060  USA




GLOBAL DATA and COMMENTS



Global Trend


 Data for 10 out of the 15 countries considered in this study.

Global data




An overview of global growth rate of the pandemic (15 April, 2020).



NATION SPECIFIC DATA


India
A statewise analysis can be found here. Indian states
A comparison of testing statistics between India and other countries. Testing statistics

 
The period after Lockdown is indicated by a dark shade.

India data

Comments:


 8 May, 2020 : The value has now climbed up to a value close to 0.07. The worst affected states which lead to this high are Delhi, Gujarat, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu.

 28 April, 2020 : The value has shown a slow but steady decrease over the last week and has just hit the 0.05 mark, correpsonding to a doubling time of 14 days. The states of Delhi, Gujarat, Maharashtra and West Bengal have significantly higher values.

 21 April, 2020 : The value showed some steady rise during the past week but now has gone down below the 0.1 mark. The data from the states Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra are at or above this level and are pushing up the overall magnitude.

 14 April, 2020 : The last 5 days show a steady decrease of to a value of around 0.1. This is about twice the current magnitude in the next largest nations USA, UK, and about 4 times as large as in Iran, Germany, France and Spain. While it is a hopeful sign compared to the previous week, its the magnitude remains amongst the largest in the nations tracked on this website (comparable to Russia and Brazil).

 10 April, 2020 : We continue to see significant fluctuations, similar to what was seen in the early phase of the pandemic in other countries, see for example Spain and Germany data.

 7 April, 2020 : The somewhat large fluctuations could be due to the fact that (a) the numbers are still small, (b) errors in the reported data.

 5 April, 2020 : The drop in the rate on April 3rd is interesting. The drop over the last few days is big, the low rate must be maintained over the next week or so to term it promising.

 3 April, 2020 : The growth rate has hit the 0.3/day mark.

 2 April, 2020 :
Note that the growth rate is less than 0.2/day at present. The fluctuations of are quite significant, and there is no trend towards steady decrease. The lesson from the Italy graph below is that we are still a few days away from 10 days of lockdown, so the situation could change very soon. Currently however, this is worrisome and seems to indicate that the effect of the lockdown has not yet stabilized the progression of the pandemic in a systematic way.


USA
A statewise analysis can be found here. US states

 
The period after Lockdown (partial) is indicated by a dark shade.

USA data

Comments:

 21 April, 2020 :
The value is decreasing below 0.05 after a flatting for a few days. Amongst the states tracked here, only California shows a recent rise, while other states show a decreasing trend.

 14 April, 2020 : A steadily falling of around 0.05 is a good sign.

 5 April, 2020 : The rate is holding above 0.1 and seems flat. Could be a tough week.

 2 April, 2020 : The US has not enforced a lockdown, but different states have imposed ``soft'' versions of it. The current growth rate is less than 0.2/day at present, and is decreasing steadily towards 0.1/day. The next week would be crucial, if the downward trend is uninterrupted then the worst would have been overcome.


UK

 
The period after Lockdown is indicated by a dark shade.

UK data

Comments:

 21 April, 2020 :
The value is holding steady at 0.05 in the last week.

 14 April, 2020 : The downward trend of has resumed and its magnitude of around 0.05 is a good sign.

 10 April, 2020 : The downward trend has not been sustained and things do not look so good.

 4 April, 2020 : There is a steady decrease of over the last few days but one has to see if this trend continues.

 2 April, 2020 : The growth rate in UK is less than 0.2/day at present and is steadily decreasing towards 0.1/day. The picture here is similar to the US. The lockdown has just begun to affect the plot, and the next week should be important in determining whether the decrease is sustained.


China

 
The period after Lockdown is indicated by a dark shade.

China data

Comments:

 14 April, 2020 :
Recently reported re-infection is not visible on the scale of this plot.

 2 April, 2020 : The data suggests that the pandemic has been controlled in China. The absence of fluctuations in the curve after the peak around 13th is remarkable and singular among all the data sets. Unreported or underreported cases would lead to this type of behavior, as would a highly successful set of defensive measures.


ITALY

 
The period after Lockdown is indicated by a dark shade.

Italy data

Comments:

 14 April, 2020 :
It seems close to South Korea and the worst may be behind.

 5 April, 2020 : Decreased rate is holding steady. Quite promising.

 2 April, 2020 : The curve is encouraging since the magnitude is small and also the fluctuations are small. Italy might be close to controlling the pandemic. A notable feature of the data is that the fluctuations of decrease after about 10 days of lockdown.


IRAN

 
The period after Lockdown is indicated by a dark shade.

IRAN data

Comments:

 14 April, 2020 :
Steadily falling of order 0.02 is promising.

 5 April, 2020 : The rate is sloping down, promising.

 2 April, 2020 : The growth rate is hovering around 0.1/day at present. The absence of a downward trend towards 0 is worrisome, and suggests that there is insufficient control over the pandemic in Iran.


Spain

 
The period after Lockdown is indicated by a dark shade.

Spain data

Comments:

 21 April, 2020 :
Some oscillations around 0.02 suggest that further measures are needed.

 14 April, 2020 : Steadily falling of order 0.02 is promising.

 5 April, 2020 : The rate is sloping down, promising.

 2 April, 2020 : The growth rate in Spain is approaching 0.1/day, without signs of dropping further. While the big peaks seen in mid-March are begind, the absence of a downward trend suggests there are difficult times ahead in Spain, similar to Iran.


South Korea

 
The period after Lockdown is indicated by a dark shade.

South Korea data

Comments:

 2 April, 2020 :
South Korea seems to have beaten the pandemic. The initial value of μ of about 0.8 was amongst the highest, but since the beginning of March the defensive measures have worked very well.


GERMANY

 
The period after Lockdown is indicated by a dark shade.

Germany data

Comments:

 21 April, 2020 :
The value is a bit smaller and less oscillatory than in Spain. The situation is promising.

 14 April, 2020 : Steadily falling of order 0.02 is promising

 10 April, 2020 : Over the last three weeks or so there has been a steady decrease with a marked oscillation.

 3 April, 2020 : The rate is holding slightly below 0.1 and seems mostly flat, except for the dip on the last day. Could be a tough week.

 2 April, 2020 : The growth rate has dropped below 0.1/day recently and it is almost 10 days to the lockdown. The slight downward trend of μ in the last few days is encouraging.


FRANCE

 
The period after Lockdown is indicated by a dark shade.

FRANCE data

Comments:

 21 April, 2020 :
A recent spike in seems to be settling down to a steady and low value of around 0.01.

 14 April, 2020 : Steadily falling of order 0.02 is promising.

 5 April, 2020 : The measures have not led to much dampening the oscillations of the rate.

 2 April, 2020 : The growth rate has fallen below 0.1/day, similar to Germany. However it is slightly worrisome that the lockdown is more than 14 days old, and unlike say in Italy, it has not been more effective. The next week is clearly crucial here too.


SWEDEN

 
Sweden has not imposed a Lockdown.

FRANCE data

Comments:

 18 April, 2020 :
Sweden has not imposed a lockdown so far: of order 0.05 and it does not look good. We see marked oscillations.



DENMARK

 
The period after Lockdown is indicated by a dark shade.

DENMARK data

Comments:

 18 April, 2020 :
Denmark removed the lockdown on April 6. The value of is steady at around 0.02.



BRAZIL

 
Brazil has not imposed a nation-wide lockdown.

BRAZIL data

Comments:

 8 May, 2020 : The value has been oscillating around 0.08. The number of new cases per day has hit the 10000 mark.

 21 April, 2020 : The value is hovering around 0.1. The numbers show similarity to those from India.





RUSSIA

 
The period after Lockdown is indicated by a dark shade.

RUSSIA data

Comments:

 21 April, 2020 :
The value is flat and hovering around 0.15 for 2 weeks. Its magnitude is the largest amongst the countries tracked here and therefore quite worrying.







TURKEY

 
The period after Lockdown is indicated by a dark shade.

TURKEY data

Comments:

 21 April, 2020 :
The value is around 0.05 and shows a steady decrease for the last week.




  The rate of spreading of the pandemic for 40 countries

Global rate dataGlobal rate data

The rate of spreading of the pandemic in 40 affected cases. The data is ordered so that the slowest (fastest) rate is at the bottom (top). The left chart gives the rate averaged over the first three weeks after the confirmed number of cases in a country was more than 50. The right chart gives the rate on the 21st day (weighted average over 4 days)

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